The AI boom is not just a cloud story. It is landing in your next laptop quote. Memory makers are shifting capacity to high-bandwidth memory and server parts, and the shortage of ordinary DRAM and flash is pushing up what PCs cost and how long organisations keep them.
What the numbers say
- Shipments down: Gartner forecasts worldwide PC shipments to fall 10.4% in 2026 and smartphones 8.4%.
- Prices up: Gartner estimates combined DRAM and SSD prices will rise about 130% by the end of 2026 versus 2025, lifting average PC prices around 17% and smartphones around 13%.
- Memory eats the bill of materials: Gartner puts memory at roughly 16% of a PC’s production cost in 2025, heading toward 23%.
- Still rising: TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to climb another 13% to 18% in the third quarter and NAND flash 10% to 15%.
- Component level: Sigmaintell data shows the average 16 Gb DRAM chip rising from $19.20 to $28.50 between Q1 and Q2 2026, and a 512 GB PCIe Gen4 SSD averaging about $126, up roughly 54% on the quarter.
- How long: Gartner has said the shortage could extend into the second half of 2027. IDC has similarly warned it could last well into 2027.
How vendors are reacting
Major PC makers have warned of 15% to 20% price increases from the second half of 2026. Lenovo has warned partners that some commercial client pricing would change and certain orders might be repriced depending on shipment timing. Cisco cancelled compute promotions and deal-registration incentives. Gartner also expects PC lifespans to stretch about 15% in enterprises and 20% for consumers as buyers delay replacements.
Where to be skeptical
Forecasts like these move with every quarterly update, and shortages can unwind faster than analysts expect if memory makers add general-purpose capacity. Treat a single forecast as a planning range, not a promise. But the direction has been consistent for a year, and quotes have been moving with it.
What to do about it
- Pull forward approved refreshes. If a replacement is already budgeted and justified, quoting and buying sooner beats waiting for relief that may not come.
- Check quote validity windows. Old quotes can be repriced; confirm how long pricing is held and when it ships.
- Standardise configurations. Fewer SKUs make it easier to buy whatever is in stock. Right-size RAM by role instead of defaulting to the top tier.
- Extend lifecycles deliberately. Where a device is healthy and patched, a one-year extension is cheaper than a replacement. Budget for failures and batteries.
- Do not trade down on memory blindly. Analysts expect more budget laptops to ship with 8 GB or less, which will hurt with modern Microsoft 365, browsers and local AI features.
