Meta reports third-quarter results after the market closes on October 21. This is a preview: at the time of writing, results were not yet published, so check the report for actuals. All figures below are analyst estimates or company guidance unless marked as reported.
What analysts expect
- Revenue: about $63.3 billion, near the top of Meta’s $61 billion to $64 billion guidance and roughly 23% to 24% above last year.
- Adjusted EPS: about $6.5, a decline from last year once a one-time tax charge is excluded. Sources differ slightly on the exact figure.
- Q4 revenue: consensus of about $73.6 billion.
- Capital spending: $41 billion to $42 billion for the quarter, more than double a year earlier.
The $10 billion charge
Meta has said it expects a $10 billion legal charge in the quarter, tied to a settlement of up to $18 billion with state attorneys general over youth social media concerns. Because it was pre-announced, analysts have largely factored it in, but it will hit reported profit.
The real question: AI spending
Meta’s 2026 capital expenditure guidance is $130 billion to $145 billion, with further increases possible in 2027. Last quarter Meta reported EPS of $6.18, weighed down by legal and severance costs, alongside a sales guidance miss and a capex increase. Unlike Microsoft, Amazon and Google, Meta has no large cloud business to sell that capacity to, so the spending has to pay off through its own products: ads, engagement and possibly new AI services.
Muse
Meta’s Muse AI agent launched on September 8. One report says it passed 10 million downloads in its first 40 days. Meta has said it plans to earn fees when the agent completes transactions for users. It is too new to move Q3 numbers, so watch for usage metrics such as token consumption and any monetisation timeline.
Where to be skeptical
- Downloads are not revenue. Early adoption numbers say little about paying demand.
- Capex is a commitment. Raising it again would pressure 2027 profit estimates; holding it would be read as discipline.
- Headline EPS may mislead. With a $10 billion charge in play, compare adjusted and GAAP figures.
What to check in the report
- Revenue against the $61 billion to $64 billion guide and the Q4 outlook.
- Actual Q3 capex versus the $41 billion to $42 billion estimate.
- Any change to the $130 billion to $145 billion annual range and early commentary on 2027.
- Muse usage and monetisation details.
This article is informational, not investment advice.
