Gartner forecasts that worldwide PC shipments will decline 10.4% in 2026 and smartphone shipments will decline 8.4% compared with 2025. The research firm attributes the forecast to rising memory costs and estimates that combined DRAM and SSD prices could rise 130% by the end of the year.[1]
Gartner says the cost pressure could increase PC prices by 17% and smartphone prices by 13% compared with 2025. It also expects organizations and consumers to keep devices longer, with PC lifetimes rising 15% for business buyers and 20% for consumers by the end of 2026.[1]
Why the forecast matters to IT buyers
A decline in unit shipments does not necessarily mean that technology spending falls. Gartner expects higher prices to concentrate demand on premium devices and says vendors may accept lower volumes to preserve profitability. For businesses, that can mean a refresh budget buys fewer endpoints than it did previously.
Longer device lifecycles create a trade-off. Delaying a refresh may protect short-term cash flow, but older devices can increase support effort, battery failures, incompatibility, and security exposure. Gartner specifically warns that extended lifetimes can raise concerns about vulnerabilities and managing older devices.[1]
AI PCs face a more complicated market
Gartner says rising prices could delay the projected 50% AI-PC penetration milestone until 2028. That forecast does not mean AI-capable endpoints have no value. It suggests that organizations will need a clearer workload-based case before paying a premium for hardware with local AI acceleration.
IT teams should distinguish between a device that has an AI-capable processor and a device that materially improves a defined business workflow. Useful evaluation criteria include application performance, local model support, privacy requirements, battery life, manageability, repairability, and the cost of supporting a mixed fleet.
Procurement responses
Organizations facing higher memory and storage prices can use a more disciplined refresh strategy. Prioritize devices that are failing, unsupported, or unable to meet security and productivity requirements. Standardize a smaller number of configurations where possible, and compare the cost of upgrading versus replacing a device over its remaining service life.
Procurement teams should also watch lead times and component availability instead of relying on a single annual buying event. A staggered plan may provide more flexibility, but it needs consistent standards so that the support burden does not grow with every emergency purchase.
Gartner’s forecast is a market projection, not a certainty. Its main practical message is that memory economics may change endpoint planning. For businesses, the right response is to connect refresh decisions to security, productivity, and total cost rather than chase the newest specification or delay every upgrade indiscriminately.
Sources
Editorial note: This article reports public announcements, company statements, and published research. Availability, forecasts, and product claims may change.
