Tesla reports third-quarter results after the market closes on October 21, with a call at 5:30 p.m. ET. This is a preview: at the time of writing, results were not yet published, so check the report itself for actuals.
What we already know
- Deliveries: 486,532, down 2.1% from 497,099 a year earlier but above the 461,974 consensus.
- Production: 464,391, so inventory fell by 22,141 units, the second straight quarter of drawdown.
- Mix: Model 3 and Model Y made up 478,237 deliveries. Other models fell 48% to 8,295.
- Energy storage: 13.7 GWh, up 9.6% year over year, but below the roughly 15.9 GWh analysts expected.
What the market expects
| Metric | Consensus | Reference point |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | about $28.06B | $28.1B in Q3 2025; $28.24B in Q2 2026 |
| Non-GAAP EPS | about $0.45 | $0.50 in Q3 2025; $0.33 in Q2 2026 |
Analyst ranges are wide: $25.1B to $30.6B for revenue and $0.30 to $0.70 for EPS. Figures are from Electrek’s preview.
Where the pressure is
- Last quarter missed. Q2 EPS was $0.33 against a $0.53 consensus. Operating margin was 1.4%, and operating income fell 57% to $398 million as operating expenses rose 47%.
- Auto margin. Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits fell to 16.3% in Q2 from 19.2% in Q1. Tesla pointed to a warranty adjustment and tariff relief that did not recur.
- Credits are shrinking. Regulatory credit revenue was $146 million in Q2, down 67% year over year.
- Cash. Q2 free cash flow was negative $1.09 billion. Tesla has guided to more than $25 billion of 2026 capital spending, weighted to the second half.
Questions to watch on the call
Shareholder questions submitted ahead of the call centre on:
- Scaling Cybercab beyond Austin, and the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review.
- Timing for unsupervised FSD in customer cars, and whether HW3 owners get a free hardware upgrade.
- Robotaxi unit economics against the company’s 30-cent-per-mile target.
- Optimus unit cost and first paying customers.
Where to be skeptical
A delivery beat does not guarantee a profit beat, since prices, mix and costs all move margins. Tesla has missed EPS estimates in two of the last four quarters. Robotaxi and Optimus timelines have slipped before, so look for dates and unit numbers rather than ambition.
This article is informational, not investment advice.
